Biden hits a date for the Ukraine war on February 16. Is Putin on time?

The Biden administration, through "CIA leaks" to the press as usual, announced that Putin was planning an attack on Ukraine on February 16.

Biden hits a date for the Ukraine war on February 16. Is Putin on time?

In principle, announcing the date of the enemy's pre-scheduled attack is a situation that represents the pinnacle of absurdity. In a real war, you cannot reveal to the enemy your knowledge of his plans, and you will not be taken seriously if nothing happens on this date.

However, there are two scenarios that could represent a reasonable logical explanation for such a declaration:

1. The first scenario, if Russia is not going to attack, Biden will then be able to declare Russia's surrender, and he has prevented the attack with his threats.
2. The second scenario, which I think will be implemented now, if Washington itself is planning to provoke Ukraine on this date. Thanks to the strongest propaganda campaign ever carried out in the Western media, it will blame Russia and impose the most severe economic sanctions on it. It is no accident, then, that the United States Congress should discuss these sanctions in advance. Since Europe cannot be forced to join such sanctions, there is an urgent need for a strong pretext: the "Russian aggression" that has taken place.

Why do I think the second scenario will be implemented, not the first?

• First, since the CIA director's visit to Moscow last November, she has written that Washington will issue an ultimatum to Moscow on the eve of its clash with China. I assumed at the time that Moscow would reject the ultimatum and provide its own warning. That is exactly what happened.
• Secondly, all subsequent steps of the parties are commensurate with the logic of the inevitability of battle, from the moment the warnings were exchanged, as preparations were under way, but each side strives to impose its own war scenario.

The United States of America is seeking to impose proxy fighting, with the aim of tearing up economic relations between Europe and Russia at the very least, or at most a war between Russia and Europe, while Ukraine in this scenario must play the role of victim, giving Washington the pretext of crushing any European resistance.

In short, unjustified economic sanctions are the traditional U.S. weapon against Russia. Suffice it to remember the Jackson-Vanek Amendment, which in 1974 imposed restrictions on the export of technology and equipment to the Soviet Union. The restrictions were officially imposed because the Soviet Union prevented Jews from leaving for Israel. These restrictions on Russia were lifted only in 2012, nearly 30 years after the Soviet Union lifted restrictions on the exit of Jews, and 21 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union itself. Then we can also remember the so-called Magnitsky Act, sanctions for the alleged supply of weapons to North Korea, sanctions for the alleged use of chemical weapons, legendary interference in the U.S. election, and pirate attacks attributed to Russia. Separately, sanctions against The North Torrent-2, allegedly "undermining energy security in Europe," and finally sanctions simply for the fact that Russia is on the world map: "The Law to Confront the Enemies of the United States of America through Sanctions."

But the usual sanctions now are no longer enough, we are no longer talking about "containment", we are talking about destroying the economy and provoking social riots in the shortest possible time. In general, these sanctions amount to a declaration of war against Russia. If luck smiles at the United States of America, and Vladimir Putin responds to Ukrainian provocations, there is likely to be a direct war between Russia and Ukraine, with subsequent intervention by Europe.

Why do I think war can happen on washington's schedules?

The intensity of the diplomatic efforts of Germany and France indicates that they consider the threat to their economy of American adventure urgent and real, and are trying to prevent this scenario from occurring in various ways. At the same time, however, the rudeness of "American infantry soldiers", Britain and Ukraine go beyond all possible limits.

The visit of the British Foreign and Defence Ministers to Moscow was not for negotiations, but for the purpose of issuing warnings and pretending that they had done everything in their hands to prevent "Russian aggression". It is as if something happens, it has happened despite the west's peacekeeping efforts. The British Foreign Secretary even did not prepare for negotiations, nor did she bother to read what she would discuss with the Russians, which ended in a funny incident: while discussing the presence of Russian troops in the Russian regions of Voronig and Rostov bordering Ukraine, the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, asked his British counterpart, Elizabeth Tras: Do you recognize Russian sovereignty over these areas? 

"We won't ever perceive Russian sway over these areas," she said.

• After that, the British ambassador had to make it clear publicly that these areas were mainly Russian territory.

During the last round of the Meeting of the Normandy Quartet, Ukraine blatantly sabotaged the negotiations, with the support of representatives of France and Germany. To the extent that the Russian representative, Dmitry Cusack, had to turn to the Cambridge dictionary to explain to the representatives of Ukraine, France and Germany that the word "consultations" and "discussion" of Kiev with representatives of the Donetsk and Lugansk republics, contained in the conventions, meant the need for contacts between them and the representatives of those republics.

• Ukraine deliberately and premeditatedly sabotaged clauses 9, 11 and 12 of the Minsk Agreements, thereby moving towards resolving the issue by military means.
• Thus, there is almost no doubt that In the near future Ukraine will carry out a large-scale provocation in the Donbass region, followed by an attack on the Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk.
• Vladimir Putin will then stand up to two options: either defend the Donbass, face the toughest sanctions and possibly a military conflict with Europe, or approve the genocide of the Russian population in the region, followed by Russia's most difficult domestic political problems.
• I believe Putin's decision is now clear, as is Washington. However, after the outbreak of hostilities, developments may bear an unexpected surprise for the United States of America.

Political Analyst - Aleksandr Nazarov